Jeffro,
The crucial date for the WTS is the moment when the first Returnees assembled at the temple in Jerusalem. They rely on their date of Tishri 537 BCE to be able to arrive at 607 BCE for the entry of Jews into Egypt, following the murder of Gedaliah.
It is my contention that no one, whether the WTS, you, or I, is able to positively date that event. It could have taken place in any year from 538 BCE to 535 BCE, depending on the assumptions being made. A search of the www shows the range of dates that are proposed. This is the major problem for the WTS; the elephant in the room.
As you point out, no one knows the timing of Cyrus’ Decree; it could have been made at any time during his first year. Likewise, no one has any proof – only assumptions – about the time taken for the Jews to prepare, when they actually left, arrived in the villages, the length of time they took to settle down, or the time they took after that to get to Jerusalem. If these were important to Ezra, he would have made a point of writing the details. His sole concern was identifying who had legitimate rights to the priesthood.
Nehemiah used the Tishri calendar, even when writing about a foreign monarch (see Theile, discussing Neh 1:1 and 2:1, as well as the period in question). The books of Ezra and Nehemiah were originally a single document (scroll), and Ezra wrote the document named after him, as well as 2 Chronicles. So the likelihood of a Tishri calendar must not be ruled out.
The writer of Daniel ascribes to Darius a rule that reached its first year, which means it would have commenced on 24 March 538 BCE (P&D Julian dating). If, as you say, Darius and Cyrus were not coregents, that moves the start of Cyrus’ first year to 12 March 537.
To prove that the Jews assembled on Tishri 1 (5 October) in 537 BCE, the following needs to be known: In which part of his first year did Cyrus issue his decree (from 24 March 538 to 11 March 537, ignoring a rule by Darius). Then provide undeniable details, not assumptions, of how long it actually took people to prepare their families, and the date when they left. (They would have had to wait until people from various parts of the region had gathered.)
Prove how long it took them to move their families, possessions, and beasts, to reach Yehud. Prove how long it took before all of them had arrived at their respective towns and villages and had settled down. Prove how long it took before they all assembled at the temple site.
This is the exercise that the WTS has to address – but it cannot achieve its objective. In their system of reckoning, the date of the destruction of Jerusalem is a red herring. The WTS jumps from 537 to the exodus of Jews into Egypt. That is the date they have to be concerned about.
Doug
